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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| kal wrote: | | JustGreg wrote: | Why not a check?...Warner got $500 million to convert.  I'm sure NetDix whored themselves for alot less. |
Proof? Warner did not get paid $500M to convert. Just another rumour that people seem to like to pass along as a fact.
Unlike the $150M Paramount/Dreamworks deal to go HD-DVD exclusive that was confirmed by the studios.
Kal |
After reading such comments I'm confused most of the time.
Did I get history wrong? Wasn't the former Sowjet Union the one which was communistic? Or was it the USA?
While reading such comments one could think it's the last.
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lyd
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 390
Location: Lake Mills, Wi
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | | kal wrote: | | JustGreg wrote: | | Why not a check?...Warner got $500 million to convert. I'm sure NetDix whored themselves for alot less. |
Proof? Warner did not get paid $500M to convert. Just another rumour that people seem to like to pass along as a fact.
Unlike the $150M Paramount/Dreamworks deal to go HD-DVD exclusive that was confirmed by the studios.
Kal |
After reading such comments I'm confused most of the time.
Did I get history wrong? Wasn't the former Sowjet Union the one which was communistic? Or was it the USA?
While reading such comments one could think it's the last. |
Back-channel exclusivity deals aren't exactly archetypical of the Invisible Hand, blinx.
In Soviet Russia, the DVD's play you! </obligatory>
lyd
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| lyd wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | | kal wrote: | | JustGreg wrote: | | Why not a check?...Warner got $500 million to convert. I'm sure NetDix whored themselves for alot less. |
Proof? Warner did not get paid $500M to convert. Just another rumour that people seem to like to pass along as a fact.
Unlike the $150M Paramount/Dreamworks deal to go HD-DVD exclusive that was confirmed by the studios.
Kal |
After reading such comments I'm confused most of the time.
Did I get history wrong? Wasn't the former Sowjet Union the one which was communistic? Or was it the USA?
While reading such comments one could think it's the last. |
Back-channel exclusivity deals aren't exactly archetypical of the Invisible Hand, blinx.
In Soviet Russia, the DVD's play you! </obligatory>
lyd |
Ya, but the world works with money.
Why should Warner change their mind just out of friendship with the Blu-Ray camp? Especially as the word friendship isn't very common in todays industry?
If I won't even repair the PCs of my friends for free why should Warner put million dollar affords on Blu-Ray then?
Maybe this would've happened in the "old world" but we live in today. A brutal, money lurking today.
EDIT: Or to put it into plain,simple, non napoleonic words  :
Why should Warner be that dumb in selling less discs (they have the HD-DVD part of costumers missing now) without getting something for this decision?
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lyd
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 390
Location: Lake Mills, Wi
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | | lyd wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | | kal wrote: | | JustGreg wrote: | | Why not a check?...Warner got $500 million to convert. I'm sure NetDix whored themselves for alot less. |
Proof? Warner did not get paid $500M to convert. Just another rumour that people seem to like to pass along as a fact.
Unlike the $150M Paramount/Dreamworks deal to go HD-DVD exclusive that was confirmed by the studios.
Kal |
After reading such comments I'm confused most of the time.
Did I get history wrong? Wasn't the former Sowjet Union the one which was communistic? Or was it the USA?
While reading such comments one could think it's the last. |
Back-channel exclusivity deals aren't exactly archetypical of the Invisible Hand, blinx.
In Soviet Russia, the DVD's play you! </obligatory>
lyd |
Ya, but the world works with money.
Why should Warner change their mind just out of friendship with the Blu-Ray camp? Especially as the word friendship isn't very common in todays industry?
If I won't even repair the PCs of my friends for free why should Warner put million dollar affords on Blu-Ray then?
Maybe this would've happened in the "old world" but we live in today. A brutal, money lurking today.
EDIT: Or to put it into plain,simple, non napoleonic words :
Why should Warner be that dumb in selling less discs (they have the HD-DVD part of costumers missing now) without getting something for this decision? |
I am not following your argument here. That's okay, though, because I am not trying to argue about whether any given studio did or didn't and should or shouldn't make this decision based on an up-front payoff. I was just taking exception to your suggestion that such things are nothing more than the nominal operation of a free market.
lyd
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| lyd wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | | lyd wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | | kal wrote: | | JustGreg wrote: | | Why not a check?...Warner got $500 million to convert. I'm sure NetDix whored themselves for alot less. |
Proof? Warner did not get paid $500M to convert. Just another rumour that people seem to like to pass along as a fact.
Unlike the $150M Paramount/Dreamworks deal to go HD-DVD exclusive that was confirmed by the studios.
Kal |
After reading such comments I'm confused most of the time.
Did I get history wrong? Wasn't the former Sowjet Union the one which was communistic? Or was it the USA?
While reading such comments one could think it's the last. |
Back-channel exclusivity deals aren't exactly archetypical of the Invisible Hand, blinx.
In Soviet Russia, the DVD's play you! </obligatory>
lyd |
Ya, but the world works with money.
Why should Warner change their mind just out of friendship with the Blu-Ray camp? Especially as the word friendship isn't very common in todays industry?
If I won't even repair the PCs of my friends for free why should Warner put million dollar affords on Blu-Ray then?
Maybe this would've happened in the "old world" but we live in today. A brutal, money lurking today.
EDIT: Or to put it into plain,simple, non napoleonic words :
Why should Warner be that dumb in selling less discs (they have the HD-DVD part of costumers missing now) without getting something for this decision? |
I am not following your argument here. That's okay, though, because I am not trying to argue about whether any given studio did or didn't and should or shouldn't make this decision based on an up-front payoff. I was just taking exception to your suggestion that such things are nothing more than the nominal operation of a free market.
lyd |
It's ok. And of course it's a free market but it's still very unrealistic that one would abandon something that actually sells, without getting a payoff.
Just a little closer example: If you had a bike shop and someone of your friends told you not to sell bikes to people coming from Asia,Europe or Australia or to people with names beginning with A or B would you do so?
I know, very uncommon that a friend of yours would come by with such a suggestion but would you do as he tells you? Or would you just say "Ok. Pay me some 10 thousand dollars and I'll gladly do so" ?
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lyd
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 390
Location: Lake Mills, Wi
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | It's ok. And of course it's a free market but it's still very unrealistic that one would abandon something that actually sells, without getting a payoff.
Just a little closer example: If you had a bike shop and someone of your friends told you not to sell bikes to people coming from Asia,Europe or Australia or to people with names beginning with A or B would you do so?
I know, very uncommon that a friend of yours would come by with such a suggestion but would you do as he tells you? Or would you just say "Ok. Pay me some 10 thousand dollars and I'll gladly do so" ? |
Blinx, I don't think we share the same definition of "free market". No worries, though, and this isn't the place for that discussion.
Didn't someone mention beer?
lyd
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: |
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| lyd wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | It's ok. And of course it's a free market but it's still very unrealistic that one would abandon something that actually sells, without getting a payoff.
Just a little closer example: If you had a bike shop and someone of your friends told you not to sell bikes to people coming from Asia,Europe or Australia or to people with names beginning with A or B would you do so?
I know, very uncommon that a friend of yours would come by with such a suggestion but would you do as he tells you? Or would you just say "Ok. Pay me some 10 thousand dollars and I'll gladly do so" ? |
Blinx, I don't think we share the same definition of "free market". No worries, though, and this isn't the place for that discussion.
Didn't someone mention beer?
lyd |
Yeah,maybe you are right.
I just think that one company could do all (if it's legit business of course) it want's but that doesn't mean it would. No company would abandon a working and selling product without getting the neccesary payoff for example (it sells, it works, no one complained about it. So what's the point in abandoning the product then?).
BTW: Warner did mention gas prices to be the fault for the switch. That obviously sounds like a bad excuse (and a bad laugh).
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kal
Forum Administrator
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 18114
Location: Ottawa, Canada
TV/Projector: JVC DLA-NZ7
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | It's ok. And of course it's a free market but it's still very unrealistic that one would abandon something that actually sells, without getting a payoff.
Just a little closer example: If you had a bike shop and someone of your friends told you not to sell bikes to people coming from Asia,Europe or Australia or to people with names beginning with A or B would you do so? |
Bad analogy. It doesn't work. If the A/B named people are HD-DVD users, don't forget that they need a 'special' bike. The 'regular' (Blu-ray) bike won't work.
So comparing this to Warner dropping HD-DVD: It costs them money to make both disc types. For the analogy to be correct it would have to be:
You the bike shop owner have decided to not sell bikes to people with names beginning with A or B as you cannot sell them your 'regular' bikes. These people need 'special' bikes that only they can use. The two bike types are not interchangeable so if you don't sell them they just sit there unsold. Just as much work goes into making a 'regular' bike as a 'special' bike and they're made at different different locations with different ordering/manufacturing processes. It's more work for you manage. You sell 4 times as many 'regular' bikes and there are less and less people with names beginning with A or B every day.
And to make matters worse, everyone that comes into your shop is confused about the two different bike types so many walk away (pardon the pun). So you decide to forget customers with names ending with A or B as you'll sell more bikes overall even just selling to the none A or B crowd.
Now that's Warner's story. What about Universal and Paramount?
HD-DVD sales suck today.
They're going to suck even more over the next few months with everyone dropping HD-DVD like a dead cat. So what incentive do Universal and Paramount have to make a whole pile of HD-DVD discs? None! They will only make as many as they think they can sell, which is getting less and less each day. The less they make, the more it costs per unit to produce. The more it costs per unit to produce, the lower the profit margin. The lower the profit margin, the less interest they have in producing HD-DVD over Blu-ray as Blu-ray sales volumes are increasing which means bigger profits.
I'm 100% confident that both Universal and Paramount have their exit strategies already planned out. They're just waiting for sales to drop below a certain threshold (while ramping up the Blu-ray production side) before bailing completely.
Kal
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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Sorry Kal,
but if my analogy is bad yours is even worser.
HD-DVD was going pretty well (the sales numbers of HD-DVDs were even slightly higher than Blu-Ray on 3 or 4 titles).
But then the day came on which Warner did the press conference covering the main topic "we won't support HD-DVD from 1st Juli. ongoing". The biggest joke about it: They already stretched this date. It's "we won't support HD-DVD from 20th Juli ongoing" now.
I still can't see HD-DVD going down,by the way. There was the same point in Blu-Rays life some months ago and people already talked about till death.
PS: Please don't use sentences like "HD-DVD sales suck today" or "and they will even suck more in the future".
First implies that you don't know much about sales figures or don't care about. Second implies that you've a fully working crystal bowl which I obviously doubt
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | Sorry Kal,
but if my analogy is bad yours is even worser.
HD-DVD was going pretty well (the sales numbers of HD-DVDs were even slightly higher than Blu-Ray on 3 or 4 titles).
But then the day came on which Warner did the press conference covering the main topic "we won't support HD-DVD from 1st Juli. ongoing". The biggest joke about it: They already stretched this date. It's "we won't support HD-DVD from 20th Juli ongoing" now.
I still can't see HD-DVD going down,by the way. There was the same point in Blu-Rays life some months ago and people already talked about till death.
PS: Please don't use sentences like "HD-DVD sales suck today" or "and they will even suck more in the future".
First implies that you don't know much about sales figures or don't care about. Second implies that you've a fully working crystal bowl which I obviously doubt |
If Hd-dvd sales were going "pretty well" why are the studios dropping it?
The studios have looked at the trends and decided that the SAFER bet is to go blu.
Its about money and where they can make more of it. If HD-DVD was a moneymaker for the long term the studios would choose it.
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kal
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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@emdawgz1
Like I said: HD-DVD sold pretty well before Warners decision. Some studios are now following of course (most of the news about studios abandoning HD-DVD were actually FUD however. Only one German studio beside Warner actually abandoned HD-DVD).
And the point "they sold pretty well before Warners decision" implies that Warner just got out to make some quick money (the same Paramount did).
But even now chances for HD-DVD aren't that bad. Art told me about 82% (Blu-Ray) - 18% (HD-DVD) sales figures but he forgot to mention the overall market. Sales figures tell you nothing without some numbers.
To give you a overall example of what I meant with "Sales figures tell you nothing without some number":
"I was 85% better in geography than all other pupils of my class 3 years ago." What does it tell you now? Did I just got an A mark or were the others that bad?
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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Michael Bay on Blu-ray: "Told You So"
Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 11:00 AM ET
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Michael_Bay/Michael_Bay_on_Blu-ray:_Told_You_So/1460
Never one to hold his tongue, Michael Bay is speaking out again on the high-def format war, reminding us that he backed Blu-ray long before the format's most recent wave of victories.
The outspoken 'Transformers' director's latest comments came earlier this week at an award ceremony held by the Visual Effects Society, where he presented the award for animated character in a motion picture.
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"Blu-ray’s better, and I told everyone," said Bay. "I was very vocal about it. I knew HD [DVD] was not going to make it."
As longtime readers of this site will remember, Bay made headlines last August when he threatened to back out of 'Transformers 2' after it was announced that the film's distributor (Paramount/DreamWorks) would drop Blu-ray support in favor of HD DVD.
Although Bay recanted his remarks before 'Transformers' hit HD DVD, he ultimately returned to his pro-Blu-ray stance, stating that the Sony-backed format was "where my money is."
Taking a virtual victory lap Sunday night, Bay issued his first public statement on the format war following Warner's announcement that it would drop HD DVD support, saying: "Am I thrilled? It really wasn’t my fight, but remember what I said in the press? I was kind of saying HD [DVD]’s going to lose... No one believed me."
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | @emdawgz1
Like I said: HD-DVD sold pretty well before Warners decision. Some studios are now following of course (most of the news about studios abandoning HD-DVD were actually FUD however. Only one German studio beside Warner actually abandoned HD-DVD).
And the point "they sold pretty well before Warners decision" implies that Warner just got out to make some quick money (the same Paramount did).
But even now chances for HD-DVD aren't that bad. Art told me about 82% (Blu-Ray) - 18% (HD-DVD) sales figures but he forgot to mention the overall market. Sales figures tell you nothing without some numbers.
To give you a overall example of what I meant with "Sales figures tell you nothing without some number":
"I was 85% better in geography than all other pupils of my class 3 years ago." What does it tell you now? Did I just got an A mark or were the others that bad? |
HOW?
How does sony give millions of dollars to other studios to switch formats?
Thats collusion and a violation of anti-trust laws
How do they do it?
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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Sony PS3 seen leading hardware growth in 2008
Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:39pm EST
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Sony Corp's (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) PlayStation 3 will double its installed base this year, posting the strongest growth of any video game console and narrowing the gap with rivals, research firm iSuppli said on Thursday.
Worldwide sales of the PS3 are expected to be 10 million units this year, compared with 12.2 million units for Nintendo Co Ltd's (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) Wii and 7.5 million units for Microsoft Corp's(MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Xbox 360, iSuppli said.
As widely expected given its strong sales, lower price and games that appeal to a broader audience, the Wii is in line to become the industry leader with a total global installed base of 30.2 million units.
"In this stage of the new-generation video game console market, consumers are showing they'd rather be entertained and pay less for their consoles than shell out more for the latest and greatest technology," iSuppli analyst Pam Tufegdzic said in a report.
The PS3, which has lagged the other consoles due to its high price and dearth of blockbuster games for most of last year, would double its base to 20.3 million and by 2011 would lead the industry with some 38.4 million users.
The Xbox 360, which has struggled in Japan and faces a tough battle in Europe where the Sony brand has dominated, would see its user base grow to 25.7 million units by the end of 2008.
(Reporting by Scott Hillis, editing by Maureen Bavdek)
http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN1446484320080214
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 97
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| emdawgz1 wrote: | | Blinx123 wrote: | @emdawgz1
Like I said: HD-DVD sold pretty well before Warners decision. Some studios are now following of course (most of the news about studios abandoning HD-DVD were actually FUD however. Only one German studio beside Warner actually abandoned HD-DVD).
And the point "they sold pretty well before Warners decision" implies that Warner just got out to make some quick money (the same Paramount did).
But even now chances for HD-DVD aren't that bad. Art told me about 82% (Blu-Ray) - 18% (HD-DVD) sales figures but he forgot to mention the overall market. Sales figures tell you nothing without some numbers.
To give you a overall example of what I meant with "Sales figures tell you nothing without some number":
"I was 85% better in geography than all other pupils of my class 3 years ago." What does it tell you now? Did I just got an A mark or were the others that bad? |
HOW?
How does sony give millions of dollars to other studios to switch formats?
Thats collusion and a violation of anti-trust laws
How do they do it? |
It's obviously not. If so the HD-DVD camp would've been sued for the very same thing.
BTW: Why the Michael Bay quotation? I don't think anyone cares about the opinion of the most uncreditable and most absurd person in the whole industry.
And not to forget the Sony PS3 quotation: Again: Pure crystal bowl experience. PS3 leading in 2011? Who knows if the PS3/XBOX360/Wii are still on the market by this time?
Last edited by Blinx123 on Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | @emdawgz1
Like I said: HD-DVD sold pretty well before Warners decision. Some studios are now following of course (most of the news about studios abandoning HD-DVD were actually FUD however. Only one German studio beside Warner actually abandoned HD-DVD).
And the point "they sold pretty well before Warners decision" implies that Warner just got out to make some quick money (the same Paramount did).
But even now chances for HD-DVD aren't that bad. Art told me about 82% (Blu-Ray) - 18% (HD-DVD) sales figures but he forgot to mention the overall market. Sales figures tell you nothing without some numbers.
To give you a overall example of what I meant with "Sales figures tell you nothing without some number":
"I was 85% better in geography than all other pupils of my class 3 years ago." What does it tell you now? Did I just got an A mark or were the others that bad? |
The level of denial in some HD-DVD supporters borders on the supernatural.
Its simple maths - when there are 7 studios supporting a format vs 2 that aren't even that committed anymore -(have you seen how many up and coming titles there are??) this means the vast bulk of sales will be with the BR camp. In a war of attrition, the win goes to the side with the most long term sales. Have you seen the sales rations lately? 88:12, 82:118 .. (oh, that's not in HD-DVDs favour either)
Even with the dumping of players at pocket money prices... there have been so many 2nd hand sales of HD-DVDs as previous owners dump all their software to replace with BRs that new sales are still lagging ..
The horse has bolted... all that HD-DVD could come up with was a Super Bowl commercial... and to tell everyone how disappointed they are.
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Blinx123
Joined: 24 Dec 2007
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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Err, it's pretty obvious who is more in the state of denial.
Blu-Ray only supporters (I'm purple) are more in the state of denial in saying things like "HD-DVD is dead" or spreading FUD like "Paramount and Universal have gone Blu one hour ago".
And it's like you said: Some people did 2nd hand sales but not 1st hand trash ins. That means the old HD-DVD supporters are gone but there are new to come.
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kal
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | | Like I said: HD-DVD sold pretty well before Warners decision. |
I have no idea where you're getting your facts from.
The biggest title that was HD-DVD exclusive was Transformers. The week that the movie was released, Blu-ray still outsold HD-DVD (only by 2% but they still outsold).
Like other have said, if HD-DVD was actually SELLING WELL, studios wouldn't drop it! Money! Money drive everything! MONEY MONEY MONEY! If there was MONEY in HD-DVD, studios won't drop it!
Kal
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Blinx123 wrote: | Err, it's pretty obvious who is more in the state of denial.
Blu-Ray only supporters (I'm purple) are more in the state of denial in saying things like "HD-DVD is dead" or spreading FUD like "Paramount and Universal have gone Blu one hour ago".
And it's like you said: Some people did 2nd hand sales but not 1st hand trash ins. That means the old HD-DVD supporters are gone but there are new to come. |
Its pretty obvious you know zilch about how business works.
The concept of nett margin must be applied - profit... 2nd hand sales do nothing for profit. Dumping players will increase turnover but not profit.
Toshiba's stock pricing is down 30+% in the last 3 months. Sony's is up 20%+.
Unless your maths is as proficinet as your other cursory assessments of HD-DVD's strategic position... ?
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