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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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Fat lady fell through the staircase.
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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| garyfritz wrote: | | emdawgz1 wrote: | Can you really call that a "free market"?????
Can congress do something about that?  |
Maybe. Maybe they could crack down on the oil companies to reduce their outrageous profits. (Which aren't all that outrageous, really, if you look at the % profit they make on their business. They're just big numbers because they sell a huge $$ amount of product.)
But the oil-co profits are mouse-nuts compared to the cost of the commodity itself. The price of crude oil drives the price you pay at the pump more than anything else. In 2005 it was 53%, according to the US gummint; see below. Since 2005 the price of crude is up 50%, so the price of the oil probably accounts for well more than 53% now. And Congress can't do a damn thing about the price of oil.
Sure, the higher crude prices generally (not always) translate to more $$ for the oil companies, but their profit margin generally only runs about 7-10%. When you buy gas, you pay more in taxes than you do to oil company profits. Now THAT'S something Congress could do something about. Lower taxes. Ya right... |
From today's NYT
February 1, 2008
Exxon Posts Record U.S. Profit
By REUTERS
Filed at 8:25 a.m. ET
NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) said on Friday record oil prices boosted its fourth-quarter earnings to $11.66 billion, the highest ever operating profit by a U.S. company.
Shares of the world's largest non-government-controlled oil company rose 1.7 percent in before-the-bell trading as the results beat Wall Street forecasts.
Net income rose nearly 14 percent from the year-earlier of $10.25 billion.
Earnings per share rose to $2.13 from $1.76 last year. Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of $1.98 per share.
"They performed across the board, upstream, downstream, U.S. and foreign," said James Halloran, who helps manage about $35 billion at National City Private Client Group.
Revenue in the quarter rose to $116.64 billion from $90.03 billion in 2006.
Oil prices averaged more than $90 a barrel during the quarter and nearly hit $100 due to tight supplies, geopolitical risks and the weak dollar. They averaged just over $60 a barrel in the same period a year earlier.
Profit margins from refining were relatively weak in the quarter as gasoline prices failed to keep pace with oil prices that soared to record levels.
Since the beginning of last year, shares of Exxon are up about 13 percent, underperforming the Chicago Board Options Exchange's oil index, which is up about 21 percent.
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MYoung
Joined: 24 Feb 2007
Posts: 369
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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While Blu-ray has a title advantage right now, I have yet to see an overwhelming advantage, including both released and announced titles. HDM is still a drop in the bucket to DVD. HD DVD player sales are still 33% even after HD DVD got shanked by Warner in HD DVD's most vulnerable time of 2008, right before CES. HD DVD players are half to a third of the cost of Blu-ray players right now. An estimated 90 million Americans are watching the Superbowl and they will be hearing about HD DVD, not Blu-ray. So how is HD DVD dead right now?
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Gino
Joined: 22 Apr 2006
Posts: 1363
Location: Trinity Beach, AUSTRALIA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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| WanMan wrote: | | Fat lady fell through the staircase. |
guess she won't be doing any singing anytime soon then 
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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Amazon advertising 53% off HD DVD titles. Like a chicken in every pot (bucket, pale, or something):
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WanMan
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 10270
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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Let everyone on that petition buy five titles to support their brave format.
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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| emdawgz1 wrote: | | NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) said on Friday record oil prices boosted its fourth-quarter earnings to $11.66 billion, the highest ever operating profit by a U.S. company. |
Yes, I know they make a potful of money. When you're one of the world's larger suppliers of a commodity like oil, that's not terribly surprising.
Notice this company report, though: total revenues for 4Q07 were $116B, for 2007 were $404B. That translates to a profit margin of 10% in 4Q and in all of 2007. 10% profit is not at all unreasonable or unusual -- hell, even Ron says he runs at 17%. 
XOM's profits are huge because they have a huge business. Their profit PERCENTAGE is completely unremarkable. They're not doing anything wrong or immoral. They're just running a business that is normal in every way except its size.
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dropzone7
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1069
Location: Charlotte, NC
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| garyfritz wrote: | | emdawgz1 wrote: | | NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) said on Friday record oil prices boosted its fourth-quarter earnings to $11.66 billion, the highest ever operating profit by a U.S. company. |
Yes, I know they make a potful of money. When you're one of the world's larger suppliers of a commodity like oil, that's not terribly surprising.
Notice this company report, though: total revenues for 4Q07 were $116B, for 2007 were $404B. That translates to a profit margin of 10% in 4Q and in all of 2007. 10% profit is not at all unreasonable or unusual -- hell, even Ron says he runs at 17%.
XOM's profits are huge because they have a huge business. Their profit PERCENTAGE is completely unremarkable. They're not doing anything wrong or immoral. They're just running a business that is normal in every way except its size. |
So glad you pointed this out. I get tired of people complaining about how much "big oil" profits! Like any of us are in business NOT to make profit! In my business we shoot for 15% on non commodity type items but are lucky to turn 2-3% on some of our commodity lines like cooper wire and PVC conduit. Housing starts can be down, construction can be postponed but EVERYONE has to have transportation.
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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Elephants eat more than mice. Does that mean they're greedy or eating more than they "should" ? No, it just means they're BIGGER. XOM is the biggest damn elephant around.
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MYoung
Joined: 24 Feb 2007
Posts: 369
Location: Madison, WI
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| dropzone7 wrote: | | ...EVERYONE has to have transportation. |
That's precisely why I bought Toyota and Honda, two companies that are doing well and will only do better as oil prices climb and the need for oil alternatives for transportation increases.
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emdawgz1
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 7949
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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| garyfritz wrote: | | emdawgz1 wrote: | | NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) said on Friday record oil prices boosted its fourth-quarter earnings to $11.66 billion, the highest ever operating profit by a U.S. company. |
Yes, I know they make a potful of money. When you're one of the world's larger suppliers of a commodity like oil, that's not terribly surprising.
Notice this company report, though: total revenues for 4Q07 were $116B, for 2007 were $404B. That translates to a profit margin of 10% in 4Q and in all of 2007. 10% profit is not at all unreasonable or unusual -- hell, even Ron says he runs at 17%.
XOM's profits are huge because they have a huge business. Their profit PERCENTAGE is completely unremarkable. They're not doing anything wrong or immoral. They're just running a business that is normal in every way except its size. |
2 things
1. When you control the entire porcess from raw to finished and distribution. You can report ANYTHING as your operating costs. I doubt very seriously that their profit margin is 10% if the oil price takes a downturn they'd be ruined.
2. I dont begrudge them profit. Its the monopoly that i object to.
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Gino wrote: | | oliverg wrote: | If the die hard HD-DVD'ers had to bet their life savings on which way the war was going to end...
What choice would it be?
HD-DVD?
I don't think so |
course they would if they were die-hard?!?! 
i still think the fat lady hasn't even stepped on stage yet, but certainly sounds like lots are waiting in the stadium |
Gino, even a die hard - put their house on the line - make them bet one way or another with those sort of stakes...
You would have to be absolutely puffin muffins to bet on HD-DVD
Are there any HD-DVD supporters here that really would bet their house on HD-DVD winning the "war" now? Really? Truly?
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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| MYoung wrote: | | While Blu-ray has a title advantage right now, I have yet to see an overwhelming advantage, including both released and announced titles. HDM is still a drop in the bucket to DVD. HD DVD player sales are still 33% even after HD DVD got shanked by Warner in HD DVD's most vulnerable time of 2008, right before CES. HD DVD players are half to a third of the cost of Blu-ray players right now. An estimated 90 million Americans are watching the Superbowl and they will be hearing about HD DVD, not Blu-ray. So how is HD DVD dead right now? |
Because the studios (and industry) are not looking at the HDF market in context with DVD. They are looking at these issues as a stand-alone market. The way they are approaching it is that HDF is a certainty and when the industry consolidates into the single format, the uptake of HDF titles will increase dramatically.
This means that a lot of people that already have DVDs will suddenly start buying Blurays to replace their favourite titles - some even their whole collections. Then, as certain as black and white TV changed to colour or VHS turned to DVD, the BR market will exponentially explode.
The Amazon sales (and similar) will prop up the market revenue (but not profit) and artifically inflate the sales figures in the short term.
As one of my good Chinese friends exclaimed to his brother: "HD-DVD is dead man walking. All its bases belong to Bluray"
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| oliverg wrote: | | This means that a lot of people that already have DVDs will suddenly start buying Blurays to replace their favourite titles - some even their whole collections. Then, as certain as black and white TV changed to colour or VHS turned to DVD, the BR market will exponentially explode. |
bull****. You have no idea what people might do after a winner is declared. Nobody does. Personally, I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell you're going to see the exponential growth in the winning HDM format like you did with DVD because the advantages (perceived OR real) just aren't there like they were with DVD.
Even on a crappy TV, the differences between DVD and VHS were plainly obvious: No rewinding, the tape didn't wear out, it was small, it was cool like CDs... it sounded better, there were no 'tracking' issues (remember THAT crap?) In spite of all that it STILL took what - almost 10 years? - for VHS to completely go away? 5 years for DVD to really take off. We're not even 2 years into the HDM transition. Now, you have people with millions of 720p digital displays (even HT enthusiasts with large-screen displays) saying, "Meh. There isn't THAT big of a difference. DVD is fine." To be perfectly honest, on any sort of smaller screen (like most people have) at a normal viewing distance, there really ISN'T that much difference.
As for people replacing their entire collections, I call BS on that, too. Most of the people with large collections (especially the types who would replace them) are the types who already HAVE an HD player... or two. They're enthusiasts (like us - about 5% of the market). The people still sitting on the sidelines waiting around are casual viewers - not enthusiasts (another 5%). Then there's other 90% of the population who really don't give a sh*t.
I think you're dreaming if you think HDM (regardless of whether HD DVD goes away in the near future) is going to do anything that could be characterized as 'exponentially exploding'. I'd bet you money DVD is going to be around hard-core for AT LEAST the next 5 years, if not longer.
As for your comment about HD DVD fans putting their life savings or homes on the line, well... that's just asinine. Would you be willing to bet your home or life savings that Blu-ray Disc will come out on top? It may look like a better bet than HD DVD right now, but you'd have to be complete moron to bet on either one. Who knows what could happen tomorrow or next week?
SC
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 800
Location: Melbourne, Australia
TV/Projector: Sony G90 X2 - Vidikron Vision 1
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:52 pm Post subject: |
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SC,
Firstly, my point about betting was if people were forced to make a bet right now and the stakes were that high - would there any doubt over which way the bet would go?
I have no doubt that DVD will last longer than the 5 years that VHS did when that generation of format died - but based on the growth of 1080p capable set sales and their projected outlook... One of the reasons Sony's share prices are bucking the 'recession' trend is because there are a lot of people out there that believe that there is enormous growth potential for BR. Whether you choose to believe the analysts or not, the reality is that CEOs listen to them and right now there is a industry outlook that points towards BR taking a significant chunk of the market by 2012. Remember, terrestrial TV is going HD by 2012... We will see studios bring out BR titles for the same price as DVD.. DVD will become less and less attractive.
HDF is a trend - once the industry has consolidated into one format, the marketing and promotion will start hammering home. Consumers will start to adopt BR. Its inevitable. Its also going to be huge ... if this wasn't so, there wouldn't be all this talk about a format war all over the media.
As for people replacing their DVDs - I know that this happens all the time - personally 90% of my BR and HD-DVD collection are titles that I already owned on DVD.
When titles like Star Wars and LOTR (the big ones) come out on BR, they will not only encourage further growth in the player market, they will also have a dramatic effect on BR software sales.
Most of the points you've mentioned we've already been through when VHS died... and look how that turned out. Its not just because there was an obvious difference - consumers are programmed to do something that comes naturally to them.. CONSUME That means many want the latest and greatest. BR is all that.
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garyfritz
Joined: 08 Apr 2006
Posts: 12088
Location: Fort Collins, CO
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| oliverg wrote: | | Are there any HD-DVD supporters here that really would bet their house on HD-DVD winning the "war" now? Really? Truly? |
Not me. I've been rooting for HD-DVD all along, but it's been clear for a very long time that they were the underdog. With Warner's defection, HD-DVD is gasping for air. Without a similar-impact change in the balance (e.g. Disney jumping to HD-DVD exclusively -- not bloody likely), it's only a matter of time before HD-DVD is history.
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GEBrown
Joined: 08 Mar 2006
Posts: 729
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:43 pm Post subject: |
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| garyfritz wrote: | | oliverg wrote: | | Are there any HD-DVD supporters here that really would bet their house on HD-DVD winning the "war" now? Really? Truly? |
Not me. I've been rooting for HD-DVD all along, but it's been clear for a very long time that they were the underdog. With Warner's defection, HD-DVD is gasping for air. Without a similar-impact change in the balance (e.g. Disney jumping to HD-DVD exclusively -- not bloody likely), it's only a matter of time before HD-DVD is history. |
Yes, alas, you are correct. But at least we are enjoying Hi Definition movies in our HT's while the fence sitters and nay sayers sit back and wait for 1) HD-DVD to raise the white flag and 2) the price of BD players to come down out of the stratosphere
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 15909
Location: Utah
TV/Projector: JVC RS40, Epson 5010
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| oliverg wrote: | | Firstly, my point about betting was if people were forced to make a bet right now and the stakes were that high - would there any doubt over which way the bet would go? |
But, it's a silly proposition! Nobody would bet either way. I wouldn't. Hell, I wouldn't bet $10,000 that either one would win, let alone HD DVD. Are the odds better for one right now than the other? Sure. Were the odds different a couple of months ago? Yep. Different 6 months ago? Yep. Most of us thought the holiday season would determine the outcome, when in reality, the studio defections have been the only real defining moments in the 'war'. I wouldn't exactly call anything very decisive right now.
| oliverg wrote: | | Whether you choose to believe the analysts or not, the reality is that CEOs listen to them and right now there is a industry outlook that points towards BR taking a significant chunk of the market by 2012. |
Yeah, and analysts make all kinds of stupid predictions all the time that are completely off the mark. For years, the 'analysts' - who often it seems don't know their ass from a hole in the ground - said it was only a matter of time until Apple, Inc. would die at the hands of Dell, Gateway, etc. What do we have, now? Apple is kicking ass, has cash coming out its ass, OWNS the portable music player market, has doubled their computer marketshare inside of two years, and has sold over a BILLION songs from their music store. Dell? They're closing support and sales call centers, and shutting down all their mall kiosks. Gateway has been sucking wind as long as Apple is been kicking ass. I'm not saying that's going to be the case with the DVD war, I'm just saying you never know what's going to happen that could completely change everything, and the analysts never know it's going to happen before it does.
| oliverg wrote: | | Remember, terrestrial TV is going HD by 2012... We will see studios bring out BR titles for the same price as DVD.. DVD will become less and less attractive. |
Where, in AUS? In the US, the FCC mandated transition to DIGITAL broadcast happens next year - 2009, but there is no mandate whatsoever to go HD.
| oliverg wrote: | | HDF is a trend - once the industry has consolidated into one format, the marketing and promotion will start hammering home. Consumers will start to adopt BR. Its inevitable. Its also going to be huge ... if this wasn't so, there wouldn't be all this talk about a format war all over the media. |
The media and even the industry talks about stuff all the time - whether it's important or not. Of course it's a big deal and it's news, and it's exciting for us enthusiasts, but I don't know that it's any sort of leading indicator of how BD might 'take off'.
| oliverg wrote: | | As for people replacing their DVDs - I know that this happens all the time - personally 90% of my BR and HD-DVD collection are titles that I already owned on DVD. |
So, that's a personal example of someone who has purchased and owns a very atypical collection. I own a large DVD collection, and while I've purchased something in the neighborhood of 30 HD/BD discs, only about 3-4 are duplicates.
| oliverg wrote: | | When titles like Star Wars and LOTR (the big ones) come out on BR, they will not only encourage further growth in the player market, they will also have a dramatic effect on BR software sales. |
Kind of like The Matrix on HD? You're right, but it could be years until Lucas releases Star Wars on HDM. DVD was around for frickin' ever before he started releasing movies on DVD. It's a factor, but not a large one.
| oliverg wrote: | | Most of the points you've mentioned we've already been through when VHS died... and look how that turned out. Its not just because there was an obvious difference - consumers are programmed to do something that comes naturally to them.. CONSUME That means many want the latest and greatest. BR is all that. |
That 'consume' paradigm didn't work out so well for Laserdisc, SACD, DVD-A, MiniDisc, DAT, and a million other products the owners hoped we would consume... did it?
SC
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ecrabb
Forum Moderator
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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| GEBrown wrote: | | But at least we are enjoying Hi Definition movies in our HT's while the fence sitters and nay sayers sit back and wait for 1) HD-DVD to raise the white flag and 2) the price of BD players to come down out of the stratosphere |
This is the part that makes me really roll my eyes. For what some people spend on a weekend skiing, I've been watching movie after movie after movie in beautiful HD with kick-ass picture and sound...
I don't care if HD DVD dies. Considering how many movies (many rented) I'll have watched on it, I'll have spent less per movie than going to the theater... only I got to watch them in my own kick-ass theater and not the crappy megaplex up the street with rip-off Cokes and popcorn and a marginal picture and sound.
SC
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oliverg
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Location: Melbourne, Australia
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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SC.. you're not getting my point on the betting the house - its a hypothetical/rhetorical situation.. if put in that situation, how would most react? That’s all.
Essentially, you're saying that HD isn't going to take off in a big way - at least, that's what I'm reading in your text - with all due respect, we're not going to be staying with DVD forever and the next step forward is HD (in all its formats)
The A/V world isn't standing still - DVD is on the way out. It will be around and always be a presence for at least the next decade but have no doubt - consumers by their very nature want new things to buy and play with. Not just enthusiasts, consumers in general.
BR is becoming "trendy". That's how DVD started... as trendy. Back when DVD was starting out, a lot of people were making cases very analogous to yours - except about VHS. The industry will continue to evolve and BR is the next logical step.
As for analysts, I can take them or leave them - you missed my point - the fact is that regardless on how you look at industry analysts, CEOs and company board members listen to them and in many ways, they influence/shape the future. Right or wrong, this is reality.
How many people here are only buying new BRs that they already have on DVD? More to the point, how many people here will only buy a movie in a HD format rather than DVD? SC, the reality is that most people who see/use BR or HD-DVD stop buying DVDs afterwards and wait until films come out in BR/HD-DVD.
I would hazard a guess that these trends will become our HD reality. I doubt the world is going to stay DVD forever. The mere fact that on this forum alone, Moome and John are making good sales – people with CRT want to be able to watch HD sources on their CRTs.
HD software and hardware sales aren't going to stagnate, they are going to grow and grow in a big way. It starts with the enthusiasts and then it goes main stream. Look at every format in the past, from LP/cassette to CD.. .. from VHS.. if the world worked by your logic, we’d all be using 78s right now Sure there are formats that didn't take off - but none have had the media exposure that BR/HD-DVD have had. The display infrastructure (1080 capabable sets/PJs) are out there and growing. HD players are growing. The trend is upwards, vertically. Not sideways slowly.
I don't think the diffrence between DVD and 1080p sources are as small as you are making out either. Most here would agree that after seeing their first HD movie, they would much prefer to keep watching movies in such detail. Most people out there thought that way last Christmas too when general HDF sales skyrocketted.
Anyway, we'll see in a year where we are. I'm pretty sure we all know where that will be.
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